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The Lefsetz Letter

Fear Of The Future

by Bob Lefsetz

Gnarls Barkley sold nearly 60,000 CDs last week.

It's not because people love the act, think it's here to stay, believe that Gnarls Barkley is the next Beatles, but because they love the SINGLE!

"Crazy" is one of the best tracks of the year. But there's nothing else on "St. Elsewhere" close in quality or hookiness. So if we lived in a total digital tracks world, how much money do you think Atlantic would be taking in? BUPKES!

For the first time ever, the record industry is not forcing a new format down customers' throats. They're not making the CD obsolete, people are WALLOWING IN IT! Maybe because they don't know much better.

To make it clearer... How many people who bought "Crazy" at the iTunes Music Store still buy CDs? I'd say almost none of them. Sure, sometimes a file is an impulse buy. Sometimes people will buy the CD if they want EVERY track. But the point is, at some point in the not too distant future, people will only want files, and THEN what happens to album sales?

Oh, don't throw the fact that "St. Elsewhere" is number two on the ALBUM chart at the iTMS at me. Because ultimately the iTunes Music Store only represents a SMALL FRACTION of the files acquired. People buying there are early in their digital music acquisition phase, caught up in the euphoria of their new iPod. Read the reports, as time goes on, people buy FEWER tracks from the iTunes Music Store. (http://www.digitalmusicnews.com/data/pali_download_q2_2006.pdf, http://www.slyck.com/news.php?story=1222).

In other words, people are buying albums because it's a hangover, they still BELIEVE in them. But will they continue to do so?

And what made "Crazy" such a hit anyway?

Endless airplay (it's number 3 on the Billboard Hot 100) and TV promotion created awareness. It's positively OLD SCHOOL! Top down marketing. And it works, if you want to sell tonnage.

And THAT'S why the major labels are up in arms. They don't want to see the old system go. One wherein they control the means of promotion and distribution and only a few acts are featured. Where the buy-in price is in excess of ten dollars.

But that paradigm is crumbling. Now terrestrial radio is not the only way to be exposed to music. And many people are not even paying attention to the old forms of exhibition.

In other words, the major labels are on their way to becoming marginalized. They're all about collecting the mainstream and distributing it at a high price. Where now the mainstream means less than ever and prices are going down, since people only want a single track.

Oh, people will want more tracks if they BELIEVE in an artist. But most people don't believe in today's artists. Those old credibility and artist development saws have conspired to create this environment. Today's mainstream acts are phony, made for the lowest common denominator/casual buyer.

In other words, if you're going to the record store to buy complete CDs you're positively old school. The landscape is one of evanescent hits and Grateful Dead trading. Either people want ONE THING or EVERYTHING!

The everything business will be the gold mine in the future.

Bob Lefsetz, Santa Monica-based industry legend, is the author of the e-mail newsletter, "The Lefsetz Letter". Famous for being beholden to no one, and speaking the truth, Lefsetz addresses the issues that are at the core of the music business: downloading, copy protection, pricing and the music itself. His intense brilliance captivates readers from Steven Tyler to Rick Nielsen to Bryan Adams to Quincy Jones to EVERYBODY who's in the music business. Never boring, always entertaining, Mr. Lefsetz's insights are fueled by his stint as an entertainment business attorney, majordomo of Sanctuary Music's American division and consultancies to major labels.

While Rhino may occasionally disagree with some of Bob's opinions, we certainly agree with his right to state them. At the bottom of each column we give you, the reader, the opportunity to respond and we encourage you to do so. We will post select comments.


LET US KNOW WHAT YOU THINK.

A word about submissions: We post what you give us, so please don't include your email address or any personal info. Your comments reach Rhino, not necessarily the writer, so don't expect a reply from them (or us, see our help section for contact info). We gather and post your submissions in batches, so do expect a short delay. And don't get bent if we edit your comments. We probably won't, but we reserve that right.


Comments:

Collecting music has certainly undergone changes in the past forty years. Hearing 'It's All Over Now" by the Stones on top forty AM radio prompted my first 45 purchase. The first GE console stereo my dad brought home resulted in 'The Beach Boys Today'. Open reels, cassettes rounded out my collection during college. Then came replacing all of the above with CDs. Back in 1998 my son was a senior in college and he mentioned how he had a party in his dorm room. When I asked how he kept his CDs from disappearing he filled me in on the network he set up with a few other computers, his laptop and my old Kenwood amp and JBL speakers. Not a CD in sight. That would be a little too old school back in '98. Which brings me to my point. I'm fifty-five years old and buy maybe two tracks a month from iTunes and maybe one CD a month from Amazon. The CD that I buy is usually the latest release from an old eastablished artist like Randy Newman, Paul Simon or Neil Young. On the other hand I bought the latest from the Shins and Elliot Smith before he died. The iTune tracks? My nieces wants a playlist for dancing. And I hear a great song by Outkast, Hey Ya! I'm curious about the new song from the Foo Fighters. Most kids in their twenties consider my buying habits antiquated. Soccer Moms like iTunes. Nascar Dads buy CDs from Amazon. These kids can download the top ten to their cell phones. And it probably sounds just as cool to them as a ringtone than pounding out of a pair of thirty year old, floorstanding JBLs
DMD SMC '73




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